AL992023 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

This simulation is NOT based on the official forecast track! It is using the AVNO model.
More than likely this is because it is an invest area and does not have an official track yet.

JTWC Forecast Consistency Evaluation
Objective Model Dispersion Evaluation

Forecast consistency is based on how much difference there is between this forecast and a previous forecast. If the variation between the current forecast and the forecast made 24 hours previously is less than half of the average error, consistency is Excellent. Between half and the average, Good, between the average and 1.5 times the average Fair, and if over 1.5 times the average historical error consistency isconsidered Poor. Note that consistency is different from accuracy, but accuracy can only be determined in hindsight. A consistent forecast is more likely to be accurate than one that is jumping around, but it could be consistently wrong!

National Level Economic Impact Forecast
name totloss

type loss
Total Forecast Impact:  

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge

Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 22 13 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
AVNO 27 30 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
CEMN 17 25 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
CLP5 48 112 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
HMON 23 23 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
HURN 75 132 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
HWRF 5 67 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
NVGM 42 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TABD 48 133 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TABM 39 103 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TABS 32 39 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TVCE 28 47 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TVCN 33 53 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
XTRP 68 180 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING

(14 rows)

Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast

Report generated by at Wed 22 Nov 2023 05:09:35 UTC
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