AL022024 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview
OFCL Forecast Consistency Evaluation
ForecastIndexConsistency
Objective Model Dispersion Evaluation
ForecastIndexConsistency

Forecast consistency is based on how much difference there is between this forecast and a previous forecast. If the variation between the current forecast and the forecast made 24 hours previously is less than half of the average error, consistency is Excellent. Between half and the average, Good, between the average and 1.5 times the average Fair, and if over 1.5 times the average historical error consistency isconsidered Poor. Note that consistency is different from accuracy, but accuracy can only be determined in hindsight. A consistent forecast is more likely to be accurate than one that is jumping around, but it could be consistently wrong!


National Level Economic Impact Forecast
name totloss
Barbados $ 3.50 Million USD
Canada $ .00 Million USD
Cayman Islands $ 251.63 Million USD
Cuba $ .00 Million USD
Dominica $ .00 Million USD
Dominican Republic $ .05 Million USD
Grenada $ 509.44 Million USD
Guadeloupe $ .00 Million USD
Haiti $ .29 Million USD
Jamaica $ 922.49 Million USD
Martinique $ .54 Million USD
Mexico $ 583.60 Million USD
Montserrat $ .00 Million USD
Puerto Rico $ .00 Million USD
Saint Lucia $ .49 Million USD
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines $ 118.87 Million USD
Trinidad and Tobago $ 24.08 Million USD
United States $ 1,127.26 Million USD
United States Minor Outlying Islands $ .00 Million USD
Venezuela $ .00 Million USD

type loss
Total Forecast Impact: $ 3,542.24 Million USD

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Barbados        289,117    
Cayman Islands         76,204         72,796  
Dominican Republic         38,615    
Grenada        103,541        103,541         10,904
Haiti        395,817    
Jamaica      2,776,676      1,287,517         26,341
Martinique         11,574    
Mexico      3,417,569        450,347  
Saint Lucia        148,350    
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines        110,372         72,801          3,659
Trinidad and Tobago         69,207            432            198
United States      8,452,494          7,267          2,135

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:     15,889,536      1,994,701         43,237


Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 31 44 73 116 173 221 INCREASING
AVNO 29 40 67 101 165 249 INCREASING
CEMN 42 60 92 131 193 225 INCREASING
CLP5 46 87 196 290 346 415 INCREASING
CMC 46 61 100 155 265 341 INCREASING
EGRR 27 41 81 144 257 365 INCREASING
HMON 19 31 88 147 190 239 INCREASING
HWRF 19 30 79 144 189 244 INCREASING
NVGM 34 53 96 138 180 254 INCREASING
OFCL 23 36 69 134 228 317 INCREASING
RYOC 7 20 55 165 521 887 CONSTANT
TABD 34 54 89 132 215 329 INCREASING
TABM 35 56 97 124 160 218 CONSTANT
TABS 53 112 228 318 384 447 INCREASING
TVCE 23 37 75 128 199 292 INCREASING
TVCN 25 40 77 129 192 266 INCREASING
UKM 29 41 81 145 259 366 INCREASING
XTRP 48 105 257 437 630 839 CONSTANT

(18 rows)


Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast



Report generated by cortex2.methaz.org at Thu 11 Jul 2024 03:10:00 UTC
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