Typhoon Mekkhala (WP012015) is making landfall on the Philippines as a minimal Typhoon. The current forecast track/intensity, using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast and my Taru model, is below. JTWC continues the trend last year of not doing a great job on intensity forecasts – Thursday the landfall intensity was only forecast as 50 knots, but the storm is significantly stronger today, at 70 knots.
Estimated impacts are around $150 Million USD, although the misery will be out of proportion to that due to the ongoing recovery from last year’s storms.
Mekkhala has forced the Holy Father to cut short his papal visit, barely making it out ahead of the storm. Unfortunately, there was a fatality when some scaffolding near the stage collapsed, and an airplane carrying government officials overshot the runway and ended up in a ditch just after he left. I’ll not comment on the theological implications of that.
We already have the first storm of the 2015 season, and it’s headed towards the same place many of the storms hit last year: the central and northern Philippines:
Using the Joint Typhoon Center track, damage is forecast to be in the $40 Million range, with the storm peaking as a 50 knot tropical storm, and passing south of Manila as a minimal tropical storm. All in all shouldn’t be too bad, but there are still a lot of people reeling from last year so this is not exactly a welcome system.
OK, let’s try this again . . . been out sick, as well as the holidays. Will try to be better about updates, given the whole 2 or three people who read this thing
Gonzalo will pass over or very close to Bermuda today. Here’s the visual band view as the sun rises this morning:
The forecast tracks are all tightly cluster with the peak winds passing directly over the island. Here is the forecast wind swath, using the NHC forecast track and my Taru wind model:
Slight wobbles will matter a lot – and because wind damage is relative to the cube of the wind speed, even 10mph difference can mean a lot. On this track we would expect 110 to 120mph winds over the islands. That is almost identical to Hurricane Fabian in 2003. Fabian caused over $300 Million USD in damage in 2003; we should expect at least as much from this storm unless we get a lucky wobble.
From about 5pm EDT Thursday . . .
As always, tracking is online here.
admin note: For some reason both FB and Twitter got the name “Gonzalo” wrong in the title. I fixed it before publishing but for some reason it went out “Gonzalolo”. Weird.
Hurricane Gonzalo continues to intensify in the Atlantic, and is still forecast to track very close to Bermuda as a category three hurricane:
If this forecast holds up, it could cause as much damage as Fabian in 2003.
In the Pacific, Hawai’i is in the forecast track for Tropical Storm Ana. Ana should become a hurricane today, and on the current forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (run through my Taru model) it looks like this:
This track could easily cause several hundred million in damage.
Lots of storm reports over the last 24 hours, with 23 Tornado reports, 13 funnel clouds, and over 400 reports of thunderstorm storm wind damage.
More expected today across Georgia and adjacent states.
Vongfong is moving offshore from Japan, continuing to decay. It caused some damage, a few fatalities. India continues to assess the damage and start the recovery process from Hudhud. My Istanu damage estimated impacts of over $5 Billion USD from the storm.
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, Hurricane Gonzalo passed over the leeward islands as a tropical storm, causing some damage to Antigua, knocking out power and damaging roofs. The current forecast is scary for Bermuda, with a direct hit in about three days as a Category 3 hurricane:
Offshore, strong, but deep (over 40km), so it was felt over a large area but damage was probably not extensive:
Had the quake been more shallow (under 20km), it could have been much worse, with the risk of a tsunami and much more ground shaking and damage.
Four active storms. Hudhud hit India yesterday, and relief efforts are underway. It is currently decaying as it moves inland over the subcontinent:
My Istanu model estimates between $5 and $6 Billion dollars in impacts. Given the size of the Indian economy, that would be the equivalent of 2004’s Hurricane Ivan. Of course, given the disparities in the Indian economy, and the fact that natural disasters disproportionately impact the lower ends of the economic and social scale, that comparison only goes so far. Istanu estimates that 14 Million people experienced hurricane force winds, with almost four million experiencing Category 3 conditions (over 110 mph/176kph). That will require a massive relief effort.
Meanwhile, Typhoon Vongfong is decaying over Japan, dumping rain but not much wind:
And tropical storm Gonzalo is headed towards the Caribbean. While it is forecast to become a hurricane, that shouldn’t happen until after it passes over the islands, and should pass off to the east of Bermuda:
Tropical storm (formerly hurricane) Fay is out in the mid-Atlantic, having brushed Bermuda, knocking out power and causing some minor damage.