Within the last hour there was another significant aftershock (M5.1).  These are never helpful – rescue operations have to stop, and already weakened buildings from the main shock can collapse or suffer additional damage.   This one may have added tens of millions of dollars in additional costs – a BBC reporter just said he heard the sounds of falling masonry during this aftershock and that the clock tower in the cover image of this article collapsed.  Hopefully there were no more casualties.  Here is a map of the main quake and the two biggest aftershocks (a 5.1 an hour after the main shock, and another 5.1 at 1318 GMT (0918 EST).

Significant earthquake this morning north of Bologna, Italy early this morning their time (10pm EST, 0203 GMT).  Only 6 reported killed so far, and 50 injuries, but major damage is being reported across the region and I expect those numbers to go higher.  Given the age and construction of the buildings in this region, this is not surprising.  Comparisons are already being made with 2009′s L’Aquila quake, a 6.3 quake which caused 300  deaths and over 20 Billion in damage.  While natural disasters are never good news, the present economic state of Italy and the EU in general makes this even worse news.  There are some economists who argue for a “disaster stimulus”.  My research indicates they are wrong (“Idiots” is the word I may have used).   Disasters redirect economic activity from discretionary activities to repairs and recovery.  While some sectors certainly do benefit, (rumor has it certain crime organizations in Italy made huge $ after L’Aquila), in general they are a bad thing.

The following table shows the estimated damage for various regions of Italy using 15 different computer models.  The models range from 900 Million to 30 Billion, with most clustering around 16-19 Billion US Dollars.  These are total economic impact, and include physical damage, lost revenues, cleanup, etc. My estimate is $16 Billion or so.